Rosatom expects number of NSR voyages to increase 2.5 times to 4,000 by 2030
Rosatom initiates adoption of a federal law on creation of a subsystem for environmental monitoring on the NSR
The number of voyages on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) can increase 2.5 times from 1,500-1,600 to 4,000 by 2030, IAA PortNews correspondent cites Vladimir Panov, Deputy Chairman of Rosatom’s State Commission for the Development of the Arctic as saying during the presentation of the “Comprehensive Programme for Organization of Ecological Monitoring in the Northern Sea Route Waters” held in the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation.
According to him, the NSR is developing according to the optimistic scenario. “It is planned that the traffic will reach 80 million tonnes in 2024, having increased by almost 2.4 times in two years from 34 million tonnes in 2022. The plan for 2030 is 150 million tonnes, and for 2035 - 220 million tonnes. According to our outlook, the figures may be even higher taking into account that in 2024, for the first time in history, year-round navigation will be opened in the eastern direction of the Northern Sea Route. At the same time, the number of voyages will grow from 1.5-1.6 thousand in 2022 to 4 thousand in 2030-2035,” he said.
As shipping on the NSR intensified, a comprehensive study of the NSR water area was initiated by Rosatom and organized with the participation of domestic and foreign partners in 2021-2022, explained the expert. The main developer and executor of the project from the Russian side was the Marine Research Center at Lomonosov Moscow State University (LMSU MRC) involving a dozen of domestic scientific organizations. Until the beginning of 2022, the scientific institutions of Norway, Great Britain, France, Iceland and Canada took an active part in the project, and in 2022 it was taken over by colleagues from China, Turkey, India, Egypt and Malaysia.
“The key finding of the comprehensive environmental monitoring is that at the moment shipping does not have a negative impact on the environmental situation on the NSR. However, the growing production and transport load requires the continuation of study in a new format. Based on the research carried out, together with the Ministry of Natural Resources, we have prepared a report to the Government on the need to create a separate environmental monitoring of the NSR within the framework of the federal law. The bill should be considered by July 31. We hope that it will be adopted by the end of the year, and we will have a new subsystem," said Vladimir Panov.
According to Nikolai Shabalin, Executive Director of LMSU MRC, today, the main threat to the NSR is not merchant ships, but coastal sources of pollution, harmful substances and litter carried by the Arctic rivers litter carried by the Gulf Stream, as well as numerous disposals of industrial waste including nuclear waste, especially in the Kara Sea.
“Right now, RV Ivan Petrov of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring leaves for an expedition to study nuclear burial sites,” he added.
